2024 Global Energy and Climate Outlook
The EU releases 2024 Global Energy and Climate Outlook report, aimed at analyzing the impact of current global energy and climate policies.
As the tenth edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook, this report analyzes the consistency between Nationally Determined Contributions and the 1.5-degree warming target and recommends more key actions.
Related Post: European Investment Bank Releases Report on Climate Change in Energy Sector
Global Energy and Emissions Trajectory
The EU analyzes the global energy and emissions trajectory based on three different scenarios, which are:
- Reference scenario: Represents the actual trajectory of current carbon emissions.
- NDC-LTS scenario: Represents the trajectory of fully achieving each country’s Nationally Determined Contributions goals.
- 1.5-degree Celsius scenario: Represents the trajectory of limiting warming to 1.5-degrees Celsius by 2100.
Under the reference scenario, it is expected that global carbon emissions will begin to decline in 2030 and reach the baseline level of 2000 by 2050. Under the NDC-LTS, it is expected that global carbon emissions will stabilize at 15 million tons of carbon dioxide per year by 2050. Under the 1.5-degree Celsius scenario, it is expected that global carbon emissions will reach net zero by 2060. From the perspective of warming at the end of this century, the corresponding warming scenarios for the three scenarios are 2.6 degrees Celsius, 1.8 degrees Celsius, and 1.3 degrees Celsius, respectively.
Based on the data analysis over the past decade, under the influence of global policies, the expected level of carbon emissions has significantly decreased. The forecast data for 2015 shows that carbon emissions in 2100 will increase by 88% compared to 2010. This year’s data shows that carbon emissions in 2100 will decrease by 10% compared to 2010. From the perspective of warming in 2100, the warming situation in 2015 and 2024 was 3.2 degrees Celsius and 2.6 degrees Celsius, respectively.
Despite the significant impact of climate policies, more action is still needed globally to achieve the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target. Under the 1.5-degree Celsius scenario, carbon emissions in most industries are rapidly decreasing, with agriculture and industry experiencing slower declines in carbon emissions. By 2050, the supply of new energy sources such as biomass energy will more than double, and the power generation will also increase by nearly 1.5 times, with renewable energy providing most of the new electricity.
2030 NDC Emissions Trajectory
The EU compares the emission trajectories of some countries’ existing 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) targets with the 1.5-degree scenario, which are typically divided into three categories: absolute targets, intensity targets, and relative-to-baseline targets. These countries’ autonomous contribution targets and their classifications are as follows:
Comparing the NDC-LTS scenario with the 1.5-degree scenario, most countries’ carbon emissions reductions based on nationally determined contributions by 2030 are below the requirements of the 1.5-degree scenario. If we use 2035 as the analysis period, this gap will be even more pronounced. This indicates that countries need to set stricter carbon reduction targets to achieve their warming targets.
To narrow the emissions gap, the EU believes that countries can act in the following decarbonization areas:
- Produce clean electricity: Reduce the carbon intensity of electricity. For example, integrating renewable energy and increasing the application of photovoltaics and wind energy.
- Electrify end uses and improve energy efficiency: Utilize low-carbon electricity to reduce energy consumption. For example, applying new power technologies in the transportation and construction industries.
- Decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors: Reduce carbon emissions in sectors that cannot be electrified. For example, using low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen energy and biomass energy.
- Scale-up Negative Emissions: Increase negative carbon emissions to offset other carbon emissions. For example, managing carbon sinks and deploying carbon capture and storage.
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